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As the White House's Fraud Ledger shows, the Small Business Administration (SBA) has uncovered more fraud than any other agency. Through Vice President JD Vance's Task Force to Eliminate Fraud, the Trump administration is eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse at historic rates.

When COVID shut down the country, small business owners did everything they could to keep their doors open. They drained their savings, skipped paychecks, and fought to keep employees on the payroll.

While small businesses were fighting to survive, fraudsters stole billions from programs meant to keep them afloat. The Biden-Harris administration had years to hold fraudsters accountable. It never did. Under Republican leadership, that era is over.

WHITE HOUSE LAUNCHES INTERACTIVE MAP TRACKING BILLIONS IN SUSPECTED FRAUD

Last month, SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler stood with Vice President Vance in Kansas City, Missouri, and announced the suspension of 870,000 borrowers linked to an estimated $39 billion in suspected pandemic fraud, the largest action of its kind in the agency's history.

As chairman of the House Committee on Small Business, I've worked closely with Administrator Loeffler to go after this money and ensure Main Street isn't left high and dry. Every dollar a fraudster took was a dollar a family business didn't get.

The Biden-Harris SBA knew COVID fraud was rampant and still failed to act. In 2023, the SBA’s Office of Inspector General estimated that more than $200 billion in pandemic loans may have gone to fraudsters. Agency leadership at the time stated the actual number was closer to $36 billion.

When our Committee asked then-SBA Administrator Isabella Guzman to explain the $164 billion difference, she refused to testify. So, we kept digging.

WHITE HOUSE PUSHES 'WATERSHED' FRAUD-FIGHTING REFORM IN CONGRESS AS VANCE CONVENES TASK FORCE

Our Committee spent 18 months investigating the pandemic loan programs. What we found was deeply disturbing. Rather than fixing its own broken controls, Biden's SBA pointed fingers at the private lenders it worked with. It even floated ending collections on fraudulent loans under $100,000, valued at about $11 billion, because it didn't want to appear to be strong-arming borrowers.

Unfortunately, pandemic loans aren't the whole story.

Just look at the 8(a) program, which helps disadvantaged small businesses compete for federal contracts. It only works if those firms do the work themselves. Pass-through schemes, in which the winning firm hands the job off to someone else, cheat the very businesses the program was meant to help.

In an effort to rein in fraudulent spending, Administrator Loeffler did something nobody had done in nearly 50 years: she audited the entire program. When hundreds of firms refused to hand over their financial records, she moved to kick them out. The SBA has also closed loopholes that let loans be issued in the names of children and the deceased, some of whom are listed as being older than 115.

House Republicans have helped lead this recovery from the start, and are ensuring these reforms stick. In June, the House passed my COVID Fraud Transparency Act, which requires the SBA's inspector general to report quarterly to Congress on COVID loan fraud. My Committee also advanced pragmatic anti-fraud bills, including Rep. Dan Meuser's (R-Pa.) Small Business Lending Fraud Prevention Act and my bipartisan Put America on Commission Act.

I've spent my career in the car business, and I know that paying commissions delivers results. My bill, the Put America on Commission Act, would reward Americans who come forward with credible tips about pandemic loan fraud, funded by penalties paid by convicted fraudsters.

When I became chairman, I said we would not write this money off. Democrats spent four years ignoring this fraud and were ready to forgive billions of dollars. House Republicans, alongside Administrator Loeffler and Vice President Vance, will continue pursuing it so that the next time mom-and-pop shops need help, they won't have to stand in line behind fraudsters.

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A federal appeals court on Tuesday ruled that a federal ban on gun possession by convicted felons cannot be constitutionally applied to some people whose prior offenses did not involve violence or threats indicating a risk of misusing firearms.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit issued two rulings clarifying when the federal prohibition on gun possession by convicted felons can be enforced under the Second Amendment.

The court, which includes several judges appointed by President Donald Trump, upheld the firearms restriction against a man with a conviction stemming from a carjacking but ruled that the ban could not be applied to another man based on his prior drunk-driving convictions.

One of the cases decided on Tuesday involved James Bost, who pleaded guilty to terroristic threats, criminal conspiracy, false imprisonment and simple assault in Pennsylvania state court following a 2002 carjacking.

MAJOR APPEALS COURT DECLARES NEW JERSEY AR-15 BAN UNCONSTITUTIONAL IN LANDMARK SECOND AMENDMENT RULING

Bost was later indicted on federal firearms charges after authorities found him in possession of a gun despite his prior convictions. He sought to dismiss the charges, arguing that the federal ban violated his Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms.

U.S. Circuit Judge Stephanos Bibas, writing for the majority in the decision against Bost, said people convicted of crimes demonstrating a risk of physical violence through the misuse of firearms may presumptively be disarmed based on those convictions alone.

"The right to keep and bear arms has limits, and this is ​one: Those who pose a risk of physical violence from misusing guns can be disarmed before that risk becomes a reality," wrote Bibas, an appointee of President Donald Trump.

In a separate case involving Edward Williams, the court ruled that the federal firearms restriction could not constitutionally be applied to him based on his prior convictions for driving under the influence of alcohol in the early 2000s. One of those convictions triggered the federal ban, which generally applies to offenses punishable by more than one year in prison.

Williams had been sentenced to a term of 90 days to two years, which he served under home confinement. After learning the conviction prevented him from owning guns, he sued to secure a declaration that the law was unconstitutional as applied to his offense.

Writing for the court, U.S. Circuit Judge Paul Matey, a Trump appointee, rejected the Justice Department's argument that historical restrictions on "habitual drunkards" justified applying the federal firearms ban to Williams.

Matey described Williams as "a peaceable ​citizen, capable of bearing arms consistent with the ​design of the Second Amendment."

"And with that ⁠rehabilitation comes restoration of the civic privileges guaranteed to citizens by the Constitution, and the freedom to again exercise the natural right of armed defense against threats and tyranny," the judge wrote.

U.S. Circuit Judge Arianna Freeman, writing separately in disagreement with the majority's reasoning, said she parted ways from the majority opinion "when it says a prior conviction is disarming on its face only if it involved violence or threats."

DOJ THREATENS TO SUE CALIFORNIA OVER 'GLOCK BAN,' ARGUING LAW VIOLATES SECOND AMENDMENT

Freeman argued that the Second Amendment also permits restrictions on people whose criminal conduct demonstrates a credible threat to public safety, even when their offenses did not involve explicit violence or threats.

The judge argued that while convictions for crimes that involve violence or threats qualify, other offenses, such as drunk driving, should be covered as well because they show that a person "poses a credible threat to the physical safety of others."

Joshua Prince, a lawyer for Williams, praised the ruling, saying the decision made it clear that "there does not exist any historical tradition of stripping individuals with non-violent convictions of their Second Amendment rights and whom do not pose ⁠a threat to ​the public in possession of a firearm."

The rulings come amid a series of cases evaluating whether modern gun restrictions are constitutional under a new legal standard established by the Supreme Court's landmark 2022 Second Amendment decision.

In a 6-3 ruling in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, the high court held ⁠that modern gun restrictions must be "consistent with this nation's historical tradition of firearm regulation."

Reuters contributed to this report.

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President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that "massive" oil, gas and mineral exploration was expected to begin in Greenland.

"Massive Oil, Gas, and Mineral Exploration is getting ready to begin in our new and beautiful Greenland!" Trump posted on Truth Social.

"There are Experts that are saying that the amount of easily available Oil is far greater than that of almost any land, anywhere in the World and, even more importantly, from a Security Purpose in the Defense and Offense of both the United States of America, and Europe, is second to none," he continued.

"Any future attack on the United States will have to come across Greenland, where our Defense will routinely knock down drones, missiles, or any other form of weapon not yet even conceived," Trump added.

TRUMP'S GREENLAND FIXATION REVEALED AS WARS EXPOSE WHY THE ARCTIC ISLAND MATTERS NOW MORE THAN EVER

Trump said Greenland "gives us time, location, and sightline, like nowhere else in the World!"

Trump did not immediately provide additional details about when or how the exploration would begin.

Greenland's government stopped issuing new oil and gas exploration licenses in 2021, citing environmental and climate concerns. Some previously issued licenses remain valid, although drilling requires additional government approvals. Greenland is believed to hold significant untapped oil and gas resources, but commercially recoverable reserves have not been established.

Fox News Digital has reached out to the White House for comment.

Trump's comments come after the U.S., Denmark and Greenland signed a new security agreement last month expanding U.S. military access to the strategically important Arctic island.

While the U.S. already had extensive military rights in Greenland under a 1951 defense agreement, the new arrangement expands Washington's ability to establish additional military facilities, subject to consultation and procedures outlined in the agreement.

SECURITY EXPERT HAILS TRUMP'S GREENLAND PACT AS A 'BIG DEAL' ON PAR WITH ALASKA PURCHASE

The agreement also restricts military installations by non-NATO countries and establishes safeguards against potentially threatening foreign investments in sensitive sectors, including natural resources and critical infrastructure.

Although Trump had sought to acquire Greenland, repeatedly arguing that U.S. ownership was necessary for national security, the new agreement did not grant U.S. sovereignty over the island.

Greenland is a self-governing territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, with Copenhagen retaining authority over foreign, defense and security policy while Greenland controls many of its domestic affairs, including mineral resources.

Fox News Digital's Morgan Phillips and Peter D'Abrosca contributed to this report.

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School had just let out in Marble Hill, a small enclave of Manhattan bordering the Bronx. It was a little after 4 p.m. on Oct. 8 when Oscar Belgal, 28, picked up his five-year-old son and began backing his Honda CR-V into a parking spot on a crowded street.

A police camera caught what happened next. Two men dressed in plain clothes approached Belgal’s SUV with their guns drawn – one to the driver’s side, the other to the front. They were ICE officers. More agents were part of the operation, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani later noted that officers surrounding the vehicle wore construction vests and masks.

Belgal responded by pulling the SUV forward out of the space. As he did, one officer punched and broke the driver’s window, but Belgal managed to drive off and out of the camera’s view.

FEDERAL JUDGE BLOCKS DEPORTATION OF DOMINICAN ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT SHOT BY ICE DURING NYC ARREST ATTEMPT

The ICE officers caught up with Belgal about a block away. According to ICE officials, Belgal refused orders to exit the vehicle, turned his SUV into a weapon, and rammed two government cars. Belgal's defense attorney disputes this account, maintaining that Belgal fled out of panic to protect his child from unidentified, armed men. Initial NYPD street camera footage did not capture the moment of the shooting, but investigators later determined that a bullet went through Belgal's windshield. At least one officer fired seven rounds, striking Belgal in the neck below his left ear. His son, sitting in the back seat, was not physically hurt.

The FBI, Homeland Security investigators, and the Bronx District Attorney’s office have all launched inquiries into the shooting.

MAMDANI CALLS ICE A 'ROGUE' AGENCY AFTER NYC SHOOTING, CLAIMS AGENTS VIEW LAW AS 'MERELY A SUGGESTION'

But there is a second story here, one that reveals where we are as a nation.

Within hours of the shooting, Oscar Belgal was no longer a man, an individual. He became a symbol. And the people who made him into a symbol did so by taking away the very thing that makes a man a man: responsibility for what he does.

First, Belgal was not a stranger to the justice system. In 2023, according to a criminal complaint, he was driving with two passengers in his back seat when he turned, pointed a gun at them, and demanded their jewelry. They complied. Belgal pled guilty and received five years of probation. In December 2025, he was indicted on ten counts related to narcotics distribution; he pled not guilty and was released on supervised conditions. Federal officials state that he is in the country illegally and allege that he has ties to the Trinitarios gang. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has stated that when ICE previously attempted to arrest him in September, Belgal fled.

When New York City Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch laid out that record, the reaction from the left was not to weigh it. Instead, its leading figures declared all of Belgal’s criminal history irrelevant. 

ELI STEELE: THE TERROR OF BEING CALLED RACIST IS CRUSHING FREE SPEECH IN AMERICA

Darializa Avila Chevalier, a Democratic Socialists of America candidate for Congress in New York's 13th District, went on Hasan Piker's stream to talk about the shooting. When Piker asked about Belgal's criminal history, she said, "To me, it doesn't even matter." She then turned her wrath on Tisch and accused her trying to "villainize Oscar." She demanded her resignation. Then she asked the audience to "put yourself in Oscar's shoes." Masked men were coming at his car and "You're running," she said. "I'm sorry, you're protecting your child." She ended with "F--- ICE and abolish it."

What struck me was her moral outrage. She was outraged that stating a man’s record in a matter of fact way was now the equivalent of "villainizing" him. All that mattered to Chevalier was that he was a immigrant, a Dominican like her, a member of an oppressed group, and that he was being chased by men with guns who were ICE.

In my new film, "White Guilt," my father, Shelby Steele, the author, columnist and Hoover Institution Fellow, shows how the left created a world where responsibility can never be demanded of the oppressed. He describes going to a Black Power rally on the South Side of Chicago to hear the comedian and activist Dick Gregory:

"Gregory argued that a racist America had given us responsibility, but had denied us the freedom to do much with it," my father says in the film. "Gregory held a Marxian vision of racism as a systemic force that made responsibility irrelevant in the struggle against oppression. Thus, it was bad manners to ask a black to lift themselves up."

MAMDANI DEMANDS TRUMP RELEASE ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT SHOT BY ICE AGENT AS PROTESTS ERUPT IN THE BRONX

Then Lyndon Johnson stood up at Howard University and said, you do not take a man hobbled by chains, bring him to the starting line and tell him he is free to compete. "By implication, Johnson agreed with Gregory," my father says. "Suddenly, if you were black living in this new age of white guilt, you could not be expected to carry the same responsibilities as others."

The belief Gregory preached and Johnson blessed, that oppression made responsibility irrelevant, became one of the core tenets of the white guilt racial order we live under today. White guilt is not the guilt a person feels for something he did. It is not personal, which is why I tire of hearing people declare, "I have no white guilt." 

White guilt is the collective guilt that the left assigns to all Whites for America's past racial sins. What it produces is not remorse but terror, the terror of being called a racist and losing your moral authority. To escape that terror, the "oppressor" buys back his innocence by asking nothing of the "oppressed," and the "oppressed" are handed power so long as they remain victims. That is how responsibility became "bad manners," in the words of my father, and demanding accountability became racism.

HOCHUL BOASTS 'I JUST BANNED IT' AS NEW YORK OUTLAWS LOCAL POLICE PARTNERSHIPS WITH ICE

Today the "oppressor system" is America itself, and ICE is its face. And what the formula needs most is a symbol.

Activists like Avila Chevalier dehumanize the oppressed by stripping away their responsibility and accountability, then wield what is left as a cudgel against the oppressor system. Once Belgal's record was erased, all that remained was an immigrant father shot by ICE with his little boy in the car. Between them, Avila Chevalier and Mayor Zohran Mamdani demanded that ICE be abolished, the police commissioner resign, Belgal be released and immigration enforcement halt across the city. They did not demand anything of Oscar Belgal.

The DSA often calls itself the party of the people, but listen to how it talks about the people it claims to defend. Its words for them are almost always the oppressed, the victims, and the impoverished. Their value to the movement is not their individual humanity but what they collectively symbolize. If the DSA draws its power from these symbols of oppression to milk White guilt, why would it ever surrender this power?

There is one innocent in all of this: the five-year-old boy in the back seat. His mother says he has nightmares and won’t speak despite his talkative nature. 

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The young boy will grow up with two stories of that fateful afternoon. In one version, his father will be seen as a victim, nothing more, and the world owes him. In the other story, his father is an individual who made choices, some of them bad, and yet has the chance to improve his life somehow. It is the second story that gives the young boy a real chance at life.

Belgal’s lawyer said the first thing that his client asked was whether his son was OK. This detail reveals to us that Oscar Belgal is a man with a conscience, and a man with a conscience can bear responsibility for his choices.

The same lawyer said that "regardless of whether or not someone has a criminal history, it is not lawful and it's not okay to shoot a father." The investigations will decide whether the shooting was lawful. And due process which protects all individuals within this country, including those who are not citizens.

So let the courts judge the officer who fired, and let them judge Oscar Belgal too. Avila Chevalier would cry that this is villainizing him. Those who believe in American principles would call it treating him like a man who is responsible for his own life.

The activists will never allow it. Their power in White guilt America depends on keeping Oscar Belgal a permanent symbol of oppression.

But what good has ever come out of dehumanization?

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Catholics serving in the Army should request to be excused from participating in the planned firing squad execution of a convicted Fort Hood mass shooter, which the Pentagon has proposed livestreaming, a prominent U.S. archbishop who oversees Catholic pastoral services for the military said on Monday.

Archbishop Timothy Broglio raised several objections to the Pentagon's unprecedented plan to broadcast the execution of Nidal Malik Hasan, a former Army psychiatrist who was convicted of killing 13 people and wounding 32 others in a 2009 shooting at the Fort Hood military base. Hasan, now 56, uses a wheelchair, after being shot by responding officers during the attack.

Hasan is set to be executed at Fort Hood on Dec. 3, at 1 p.m. CST, according to the U.S. Army, which would make him the first person to be executed by firing squad by the U.S. military since 1945. It would also mark the first U.S. military execution by any method since 1961. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said he wanted soldiers to execute Hasan at the time, day of the week and location of the shooting and has argued that making the execution public would help serve as a deterrent.

Broglio recalled presiding over the funeral of one of Hasan's victims, Michael Grant Cahill, the only civilian killed in that attack, and expressed sorrow over the deadly shooting. But the archbishop questioned whether the U.S. government wanted to "imitate the terrorists of this world and make a public spectacle of barbarically killing our adversaries."

POPE LEO DENOUNCES DEATH PENALTY AS 'INADMISSIBLE' AHEAD OF PENTAGON'S PLANNED LIVESTREAMED EXECUTION

Hasan's crime "was heinous, but does exposing the public to his execution serve any purpose?" Broglio asked in a statement.

"I oblige any Catholics assigned to the firing squad to request to be excused from this action contrary to the teaching of the Church," he continued.

Army regulations permit soldiers to seek religious exemptions or accommodations.

It is unclear how the military intends to select members for the firing squad.

"The U.S. military generally enjoys a good reputation in the world," Broglio said. "Is there really a value to throwing them in the same boat with terrorists by broadcasting the image of the execution of a man in a wheelchair to the whole world?"

A U.S. government execution has never been broadcast to the public, making it an unprecedented plan that has drawn backlash from political and religious leaders. 

Broglio joins other Catholic leaders in criticizing the Pentagon's plans to livestream the execution.

The head of the U.S. bishops conference, Archbishop Paul Coakley, expressed "shock" and "great sorrow" about the public execution plan and urged the U.S. to reconsider.

"In no way can Hasan’s actions be condoned but this decision is a barbaric promotion of a culture of death and must be reconsidered," he said in a statement on Friday. "The public execution even of one who has done grave harm will only further undermine the moral fabric of our nation and be a blight on the conscience of its people."

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state, called the proposed broadcast "truly incomprehensible" and warned that it was "unacceptable to turn death into a spectacle."

"The Church’s position is one of total opposition to the death penalty; it is incompatible with human dignity and serves as no deterrent," Parolin told reporters on Friday. 

According to the English translation published by Vatican News, Parolin said, "It is truly incomprehensible that anyone would want to use this method in this day and age. I do not know for what purpose. It is certainly unacceptable to turn death into a spectacle. However guilty the person may be, there are other ways."

Parolin added that the death penalty "is incompatible with human dignity and does not serve as a deterrent."

Pope Leo XIV reiterated the Catholic Church's opposition to the death penalty as "inadmissible" in a social media post on Saturday marking World Day Against the Death Penalty. 

Citing Catholic doctrine revised under his predecessor, Pope Francis, Leo emphasized that the death penalty violates human dignity.

"The death penalty is inadmissible because it is an attack on the inviolability and dignity of the person. The common good can be safeguarded and the requirements of justice can be met without recourse to capital punishment: effective systems of detention have been developed that protect citizens while at the same time do not completely deprive those who are guilty of the possibility of redemption," Leo, the first American pope, wrote on X without specifically mentioning the Pentagon's execution plan for Hasan.

FORT HOOD SHOOTER SHOULD BE EXECUTED '13 TIMES OVER' — BUT NOT ON LIVE STREAM, SURVIVOR SAYS

President Donald Trump said Saturday he had not yet decided whether to allow the livestream plan to move forward, although he has reportedly expressed doubts in private about broadcasting the execution.

Vice President JD Vance, who is a Catholic, expressed skepticism about whether the Pentagon would proceed with a public execution. He said he would not watch the livestream if it were carried out.

Several lawmakers, including Republicans, have spoken out against plans to broadcast the execution.

"Public executions are what oppressive dictatorships like Iran and Afghanistan do," Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said on Thursday. "It should not be happening in America."

Reuters contributed to this report.

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With less than a month until the midterms, everyone has suddenly become an expert on Texas and Michigan.

I understand why.

Texas has Texas state Rep. James Talarico, the charismatic Democrat trying to do something Democrats have dreamed about for decades: turn Texas blue. He is running against former attorney general Ken Paxton, a Republican carrying enough political baggage to fill the overhead bins on a 747.

FOX NEWS POLL: IT’S A LONE STAR SENATE SHOWDOWN BETWEEN TALARICO AND PAXTON

Michigan has Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed. Whatever you think of his progressive politics, he is a rare political talent: charismatic, compelling, and very good at attracting attention. His race against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers has become one of the most closely watched contests in America.

Watch them both.

FOX NEWS POLL: MICHIGAN VOTERS SPLIT BETWEEN EL-SAYED AND ROGERS

But if you want to understand what is actually happening in this election, I'd look somewhere else.

I'd look at Iowa.

FOX NEWS POLL: TUREK, HINSON IN CLOSE IOWA SENATE RACE

Because Iowa doesn't come with quite the same political celebrity. It doesn't have the irresistible "Texas turns blue!" storyline. It doesn't have Michigan's unusual mix of personalities and politics.

It just has an extraordinarily close Senate race. And that may make it a much better test of the country.

DEMOCRATS ARE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE IN THE SENATE, BUT SHOULDN'T CELEBRATE YET

Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek and Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson are separated by essentially nothing. The RealClearPolitics polling average has Turek at 45.9% and Hinson at 45.2%.

Less than one point.

12 RACES SCRAMBLE SENATE BATTLEFIELD AS DEMOCRATS EYE COMEBACK

Fox found Turek ahead by two. The New York Times/Siena found Hinson ahead by one. Suffolk University has Turek ahead by four.

Pick your poll. The conclusion is basically the same: Iowa is up for grabs.

LEE CARTER: POLLS SAY DEMOCRATS COULD SWAMP REPUBLICANS. AS A POLLSTER, I HAVE A QUESTION

And that should get our attention.

Because something much bigger than one Senate seat is happening underneath these numbers. Americans aren't simply unhappy with Republicans.

DAVID MARCUS: IN DAYTON, OHIO, BOTH PARTIES FACE BITTER POLITICAL DESPONDENCY

They're unhappy with everybody.

A new AP-NORC poll found only about two in 10 registered voters believe either political party is focused on helping people like them.

Think about that.

After billions of dollars in advertising, thousands of speeches, endless cable-news appearances and approximately 47 million fundraising texts asking if I personally hate America because I haven't chipped in $7 yet, eight out of 10 voters still aren't convinced either party is particularly interested in them.

That's not a blue wave.

That's a giant flashing WARNING sign for the political establishment.

Yes, Democrats have improved their position. They now hold an advantage on the issue that may matter most: cost of living.

But even there, more than a quarter of voters say they trust neither party to handle it.

That is the story of 2026. Not love. Not loyalty.

Disappointment.

And disappointment makes elections unpredictable.

We've become accustomed to treating politics like tribal warfare. Red states. Blue states. MAGA voters. Progressives. Everyone neatly sorted into their corners. Except voters don't seem particularly interested in cooperating with our categories this year.

They are angry about prices. They're exhausted by politics. They're skeptical of institutions. And a striking number don't believe either party knows how to fix the problems they encounter every day.

That is why Iowa matters.

President Donald Trump carried Iowa comfortably in 2024. Republicans should not have to spend the final weeks of a midterm wondering whether they can hold a Senate seat there.

But they are.

And Democrats shouldn't interpret that as evidence that America has suddenly fallen in love with them, either.

It hasn't.

Voters appear to be shopping. And when voters are shopping, candidates matter more. Turnout matters more. Mistakes matter more.

And individual votes matter a lot more.

That's why I'm reluctant to join the chorus declaring a blue tsunami four weeks before Election Day.

Could Democrats have a very good night? Absolutely. The polling gives them plenty of reason for optimism. But elections aren't held in polling averages.

They're held by actual people who decide whether getting in the car, standing in line and filling out a ballot is worth the trouble. And this year an awful lot of those people don't particularly like either option.

So yes, watch Texas.

Watch Michigan.

Watch the charismatic candidates and the political celebrities and the races that generate the best television.

But watch Iowa.

Because if you want to know whether this election is really a wave, or something far messier and closer, Iowa may tell us first.

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And if you're one of the millions of Americans looking at both parties and thinking, You've got to be kidding me? Go vote anyway. Especially this year.

Because in an election where so many voters are dissatisfied, disengaged and undecided, your vote may count for a whole lot more than you think.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM LEE CARTER 

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It’s like watching some sci-fi game with players competing on 470 different fields. Which is your basic definition of crazytown. No human being, without mainlining AI into his or her arm, could possibly track so many contests, so we bounce from one race to the next, with buzzers and bells, like a pinball machine. 

Look! Charlie Cook is moving 18 House races in the Democrats’ favor! This is o-vah! The blue wave is getting stronger. Put a cork in this one, it’s done!

But wait a minute. The Republicans have a huge cash advantage. Big-time Democratic donors, for whatever reason, are sitting on their checkbooks. Don’t they realize the stakes? Are they all blinded by the sun on their private islands?

There seems to be a consensus, even privately among Republicans, that the Dems will take the House. The only question is the margin.

So we all wind-surf across the Senate race, even if we know little more than what we read that morning in Politico, or the New York Times or Wall Street Journal. 

The GOP just sent another $30 million to Ken Paxton, the Texas Republican who has more baggage than a 747. (Being impeached by your own party doesn’t help.) He was caught on audio saying "everybody’s numbers dropped" after President Trump’s midterm convention. Even Trump calls him "a pain in the *ss sometimes." And this is the guy they want to win?

DEMOCRATS THINK A BLUE WAVE IS BUILDING. HERE ARE 3 FORCES THAT COULD STOP IT

His Democratic opponent, James Talarico, went into hiding–what’s up with that? Turns out he had a nasty case of the flu. Still, it’s Texas, the Lone Star State, where Democratic dreams go to die.

Okay, we’re starting to get vertigo. In Maine, is this the year Susan Collins gets knocked off? One poll has her trailing by four points against Democrat Troy Jackson, who replaced weirdo candidate and Nazi tattoo-wearing Graham Platner, who quit after a sexual assault allegation. What a lovely business.

Republicans have a president who’s polling in the low 30s, which perhaps explains why he was campaigning the other day in Syracuse, when New York is among the bluest of blue states.

The Democrats need a net gain of four seats to control the Senate, and while some are prematurely sipping Champagne, nobody really knows if they can draw that kind of inside straight. If they tell you they do, they’re lying. 

MICHIGAN SENATE DEBATE ERUPTS INTO PERSONAL ATTACKS AS ROGERS, EL-SAYED CLASH OVER ISRAEL, IRAN AND MORE

There’s a harsh spotlight on the Michigan Senate race, featuring Democratic socialist Abdul el-Sayed vs. former congressman Mike Rogers. I eagerly watched their high-decibel debate the other night–okay, I was assigned to it--and here’s my takeaway.

El-Sayed won on points–he’s just a smoother and more aggressive debater than Rogers, who looks like a classic pol–and every third sentence was an attack on Trump or the war. This put Rogers at a disadvantage, because he supported the Iran war but now says it should end.

And El-Sayed kept whacking Rogers for owning two yachts, which is sort of irrelevant.

Rogers called his opponent a "con man" and kept trying to tie him to the Muslim Brotherhood. This was a weakness for el-Sayed, who was asked whether he’d send aid if Israel was attacked, and insisted that he’d rather spend the money here at home.

El-Sayed also did a lousy job of defending Medicare for All and why it wouldn’t bring the end of private insurance. Since Michigan is near the border, both men came out against Canadian tariffs–a flip for Rogers–in a noisy segment that was utterly indecipherable to mere mortals.

The whole thing turned into an interrup-ta-thon, with the moderator constantly scolding the contenders.

Aren’t you glad you missed it? Now, thanks to yours truly, you can pretend you saw the debate.

But enough about the midterms. Time to join the punditocracy and speculate about 2028.

Kamala Harris is leading the ridiculously early polls, with a quarter of the Democratic vote.

There’s just one problem. Her husband, the Wall Street Journal reports, has privately told people he doesn’t want her to run. How’s that for a vote of confidence?

So bite your nails, everyone. The fate of the free world, both sides are warning, hangs in the balance.

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