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Let’s not get carried away here.

The Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate are somewhere between nearly impossible and non-existent.

And yet it’s suddenly the subject of considerable media chatter.

It’s like a Rube Goldberg contraption: If this happens and that happens and this other long-shot thing somehow falls into place, the ball ends up in the cup.

TRUMP COMMANDEERS CABINET MEMBERS TO CAMPAIGN IN MIDTERMS, ORDERING THEM TO DROP OR MUTE CONTROVERSIAL STANCES

Virtually everyone, including many Republicans I’ve spoken to privately, agrees that the Democrats will take the House in November. The margin may not be huge, given that most incumbents win reelection, but having the opposition party control the floor, the committees and a blizzard of investigations would utterly change the last two years of Donald Trump’s presidency.

The latest NBC poll has 63 percent of those surveyed strongly or somewhat disapproving of Trump’s job performance, and 67 percent strongly or somewhat disapproving of his handling of the Iran war. Ouch.

But now mainstream pundits are so absorbed by such sinking poll numbers, and the war’s unpopularity, that they believe Democrats can walk on water and quite possibly ride that flood into Senate control.

They’re even talking about Texas.

TEXAS AG PAXTON SUES DEM FUNDRAISING PLATFORM ACTBLUE, ALLEGING 'FRAUDULENT AND FOREIGN DONATIONS'

I mean, come on. Remember the endless puffery around Beto O’Rourke, who lost for Senate and governor? Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since the 1990s. And yet every couple of years we get "this is it! Texas is ready to turn blue!"

I know, Democratic contender James Talarico has raised truckloads of money since CBS refused to air his Stephen Colbert interview.  

And in politics you can never say never.

Much will depend on whether Sen. John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton wins the GOP runoff. Cornyn is viewed by many Republicans as too moderate. But Paxton was impeached (then acquitted) of charges including bribery in 2023, settled criminal fraud charges by paying restitution, and divorced by his wife who said he’d had an affair.

So yeah, it’s a crazy year.

And yeah, if the war is over, much will depend on the economy bouncing back – a tired cliché that happens to be true.

The New York Times examines the question in a piece so loaded down with caveats that its corporate butt is fully covered:  

"A blue wave is not guaranteed, of course, and Democrats would not be assured to flip two reliably Republican states even if it were. But a feasible path for the party to win the Senate is coming into focus."

That’s called tiptoeing into the water. The carefully crafted Nate Cohn piece admits that Democratic candidates would have to win seven out of seven competitive races. Seven out of seven!

GOP STRATEGISTS CALLED TO DC AS TRUMP TEAM CONFRONTS RISING MIDTERM HEADWINDS

I mean, that’s as likely as the world getting to see the dark side of the moon.

Uh, let’s try another analogy.

Seven out of seven is less likely than winning the lottery. 

It’s less likely than gas prices suddenly sinking. Which is why Trump contradicted Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who told CNN that gas prices below $3 a gallon "might not happen till next year."

"Totally wrong," says the president.

So here’s the rundown.

Every Dem in the Senate today represents a state that Joe Biden carried in 2020, because the party has fared so poorly in red states. (One example: When West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin, who drove Biden crazy, retired, he was replaced by Republican Jim Justice.) 

And – here’s another Times caveat! – no party has managed to flip even two states that leaned the other way politically since 2008.

GOP SENATE HOPEFUL MICHELE TAFOYA ACCUSES WALZ, ELLISON OF IGNORING MINNESOTA FRAUD SCHEME

The assessment basically rests on the quality of the Democratic candidates heading into the midterms.

In North Carolina, that’s former governor Roy Cooper.

In Ohio, it’s former senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in 2024 during the Trump victory.

In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola is already ahead in the polls.

But Maine is weird. The strong contender was supposed to be Gov. Janet Mills. But she’s trailing in the primary, by 2 to 1, behind progressive first-time contender and military veteran Graham Platner. 

Platner has acknowledged wearing a Nazi tattoo. In 2021, CNN reported on a series of posts in which Platner also called himself a communist, said rural Americans are "racist" and "stupid," described all police officers as "bastards," and used the word "retard" several times. He says these were stupid jokes. And Elizabeth Warren campaigned with him over the weekend.

What’s more, would either candidate be able to oust independent Republican fixture Susan Collins?

At the same time, the Democrats have to defend seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire. 

Even the fiercely nonpartisan Cook Political report shifted four Senate races to the Democrats, but that’s from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, or Lean Republican to Tossup. Not exactly a slam dunk.

But the Times story has started to echo on television.

"Republicans Are Starting to Worry About Losing the Senate," an MS NOW banner blared.

The ultimate Times hedge: "If a blue wave materializes, Democrats have a chance to ride it to Senate control."

SUBSCRIBE TO HOWIE'S MEDIA BUZZMETER PODCAST, A RIFF ON THE DAY'S HOTTEST STORIES

But here’s the thing. It’s an off-year election. Let’s not forget: everything depends on turnout. 

If Trump voters are demoralized, many may stay home. If Democratic voters are ticked off but not to the point of driving themselves to the polls, that will muffle the impact.

If politics were predictable, the pontificators and the junkies would have far less material for their never-ending arguments.

Footnote: I’m prepared to eat crow on November 3rd.

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Two men recently attempted to carry out an alleged terrorist attack in New York City, an attack that, according to investigators, was intended to kill as many as 60 people. Details are still unfolding, but the intent appears unmistakable: mass casualties and maximum fear.

For many New Yorkers, the immediate question wasn’t just how the plot was stopped. It was how the city’s new leadership would respond — specifically, how Mayor Zohran Mamdani would react. The answer was not encouraging, and it’s not a reassuring sign for the next four years.

After the 9/11 attacks, the city faced profound uncertainty. I was here then, working as a cop in Manhattan. No one knew what would come next or whether the city could recover. We initially didn’t even know who had attacked us.

SUSPECT IN NYC TERROR PROBE PLANNED ATTACK 'BIGGER THAN THE BOSTON MARATHON BOMBING,' PROSECUTORS SAY

What steadied New York was leadership. Mayor Rudy Giuliani projected calm and resolve, offering reassurance when it was needed most. Just as critical was the role of the NYPD, which secured Lower Manhattan, restored order and helped normalize life. There was no prolonged military presence. The police handled it.

What followed was a remarkable recovery. Under Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly, crime fell to historic lows, tourism surged and neighborhoods flourished. It worked so well that, over the ensuing years, many came to believe terrorism was no longer an immediate threat. In the Intelligence Bureau, where I served, we had a saying: "The further we get from 9/11, the closer we get to 9/10."

Now, as we approach the 25th anniversary of 9/11 and with global tensions rising — including conflict involving Iran — New York once again faces that reality. And once again, it has been the NYPD that stepped forward. When the two suspects allegedly attempted to deploy improvised explosive devices, it wasn’t rhetoric that stopped them. It was police work — officers pursuing and tackling a fleeing suspect in real time.

NEW YORK'S MAYOR MAMDANI PROMISED CHANGE — NOW HE’S GUTTING THE NYPD

The response from city hall, however, was less inspiring. Mamdani appeared to pivot quickly to a favored political narrative, initially focusing on "White supremacy" before grudgingly admitting the terrorist attack. It is telling that the mayor’s and other city leaders’ reflex was to immediately focus on the idiotic — but peaceful — demonstration the terrorists were targeting rather than two allegedly ISIS-inspired perpetrators.

Compounding that concern was a highly publicized Ramadan event at Gracie Mansion featuring Mahmoud Khalil, who was previously taken into federal custody following his involvement in disruptive protests at Columbia University. 

The optics were hard to miss, particularly coming on the heels of a near mass-casualty attack. Khalil, facing deportation for campus activism, is the hero. The police, who just days earlier apprehended two terrorists, are not. None of the cops involved got their Gracie Mansion moment.

DAVID MARCUS: THE MORE AMERICA GIVES MAMDANI, KHALIL AND THE MAD BOMBERS, THE MORE THEY HATE US

Mamdani represents a younger generation that did not experience 9/11 in the same formative way. For many New Yorkers, that day still defines how seriously threats are taken. Yet the mayor’s dogged ideological posture — particularly his embrace of "collectivist" themes — suggests a naive worldview that risks prioritizing theory over hard-earned lessons. In short, when it comes to public safety, he does not appear to be learning.

At a time when New York is still recovering from COVID-19, that carries real-world consequences. Financial warning signs are already visible, with three different rating agencies raising concerns about the city’s fiscal outlook by downgrading New York’s bond rating.

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New York’s history makes one point clear: Everything begins with public safety. Investment, tourism, the economy and quality of life, all depend on it — and on a supported NYPD. There was a time when Wall Street could be counted on to drag us out of the doldrums. But in a remote worker economy, that cushion is gone.

So, at the 100-day mark of Mamdani’s administration, residents here — and indeed, in many blue cities around the country — are forced to consider: do we have leadership that is up to handling crisis?

Based on what we’ve seen so far in New York, the answer is far from reassuring.

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A strong earthquake took place off the northern coast of Japan Monday afternoon, prompting the Japan Meteorological Agency to put out a tsunami alert in the area.

The quake, registering a preliminary magnitude of 7.5, occurred off the coast of Sanriku in northern Japan at around 4:53 p.m. local time, at a depth of about 10 miles below the sea surface, the agency said.

NHK public television indicated that a tsunami of as high as 10 feet could impact the region soon.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated

The Associated Press contributed to this report

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President Trump struck a ceasefire with Iran that didn’t seem possible.

Doesn’t matter.

Trump pressured Israel into halting its attacks on Lebanon.

So what.

TRUMP RENEWS BRIDGE, POWER PLANT THREAT AGAINST IRAN IN PUSH FOR DEAL, MOCKS 'TOUGH GUY' IRGC

The stock market reached record highs as investors concluded the war is about to end.

Big deal.

No matter what the guy does, his opponents won’t give him credit.

TRUMP PUSHED IRAN TO THE BRINK — BUT DID WE WIN ANYTHING THAT LASTS?

And when the murderous mullahs again shut down the Strait of Hormuz–in retaliation, they say, for the U.S. enforcing its own blockade of Iranian ports–you could practically hear the sighs of relief that the peace deal might be crumbling.   

Trump told ABC’s Jonathan Karl yesterday that Iran has committed a "serious violation" of the ceasefire, but he was still confident about a deal: 

"It will happen. One way or another, The nice way or the hard way. It’s going to happen. You can quote me."

VANCE WARNS IRAN WILL 'FIND OUT' TRUMP IS 'NOT ONE TO MESS AROUND' IF CEASEFIRE DEAL FALLS APART

On X, Karl got hammered for–get this–calling the president for comment on a significant setback in the war.  

"Why compromise yourself as a journalist & post BS from a pathological liar?" one woman said.

"Jon, just stop," said another female poster. "You know he doesn’t have a clue so he just feeds you guys lies."

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: 5 KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM TRUMP’S IRAN ADDRESS

After the Karl exchange, Trump tweeted: "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY1"

A banner headline on Drudge read "LEAK: TRUMP GRIPPED WITH FEAR." This was tied to a Wall Street Journal piece about Trump’s frustrations with the war, sometimes losing focus, and musing about awarding himself the Medal of Honor.

When Tehran fired on two Indian-flagged ships in the strait, it was a troubling sign. The speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Ghalibaf, says the two sides are far apart on a final agreement. Maybe that’s a negotiating tactic.

HEGSETH DECLARES 'DECISIVE MILITARY VICTORY' OVER IRAN

The larger point is that most Democrats and many in the media won’t acknowledge it when the president does something that turns out right. Because it’s Trump.   

Now some of this is rooted in Trump’s decision, under pressure from Israel, to launch his war of choice, conduct airstrikes against Iran without so much as a nod to Congress or our supposed European allies.

Maybe that was a bad decision. It certainly wasn’t a popular one.

IRAN WAR NEARS ‘COMPLETION’ AS TRUMP EYES DEADLINE — WHAT THE ENDGAME COULD LOOK LIKE

Seven weeks later, a new Politico poll finds 38% of those surveyed support the strikes–and almost half say Trump spends too much time on global affairs rather than domestic issues.

The president’s inflammatory rhetoric hasn’t helped, from "Close the F—in’ Strait" on Easter Sunday to vowing two days later that "a whole civilization will die tonight."

So I understand those who have principled objections to the war, especially Trump’s former acolytes in the conservative media.

STEVE FORBES: NO MORE DELUSIONS — AMERICA HAS TO FINISH THE JOB IN IRAN

But whether he was lucky or just stumbled into the right situation, he certainly deserves a belated bit of recognition.

Trump says his tough and sometimes erratic talk kept the Iranian leaders who survived the bombing off balance. And, of course, his latest delay in the bombing pause created the space for a tentative agreement (which theoretically expires Tuesday).

Come on: If President Biden had achieved a double ceasefire–with Iran and Lebanon–Democrats would be hailing him as a great commander-in-chief and powerful peacemaker. (And most Republicans would be critical.)

TRUMP’S IRAN STRATEGY SHOWCASES ‘DOCTRINE OF UNPREDICTABILITY’ AMID STRIKE THREATS AND SUDDEN PAUSE

Trump, never one to deflect credit, posted Friday: "The Failing New York Times, FAKE NEWS CNN, and others, just don’t know what to do. They are desperately looking for a reason to criticize President Donald J. Trump on the Iran situation, but just can’t find it."

Meanwhile, Trump hasn’t lost his talent for stepping on his own story.

By posting that fake AI picture of himself as Jesus, and a followup of Christ comforting him, the president angered many Catholic followers who viewed the images as blasphemous. Trump had to delete the first one within 12 hours, which he almost never does.

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I know why he did it. Trump wanted to draw attention to his war of words with Pope Leo, and this guaranteed the topic would dominate the news for days. He even had JD Vance, a converted Catholic, warn the American-born Pope to be careful about discussing theology.

By the way, I don’t agree with Pete Hegseth (who delivered a biblical verse actually lifted from "Pulp Fiction") unloading on the "Trump-hating" legacy media. I don’t believe they’ve portrayed the war as a failure.

But in watching show after show after Trump’s announcement, I saw a bit of straight reporting on the president’s update quickly fade into the Jesus uproar, dissing NATO, the Epstein files, RFK’s ostensible shift on vaccines, Victor Orban’s defeat–all the same stuff they would have been talking about had there been no progress on the war.

WHY TRUMP, IRAN SEEM LIGHT-YEARS APART ON ANY POSSIBLE DEAL TO END THE WAR

Despite the president’s repeated pronouncements of victory, we do have to ask where this would leave his main rationale for the airstrikes–to keep Iran from building nuclear weapons.

Whether such an outcome was imminent or not, I haven’t seen the Iranians, who lie for a living, agree to forfeit their longtime ambitions.

What I’ve watched instead is Trump saying he would strongly consider unfreezing $20 billion in Iranian assets if the U.S. can remove the enriched uranium–and underground nuclear "dust" – from the country. Maybe with that supposed price tag, it’s worthwhile for the world’s biggest terror state.

BROADCAST BIAS: FROM SPACE TO CEASEFIRES, NETWORKS STILL PAINT TRUMP AS THE PROBLEM

But as we’ve just learned again, the devil is always in the details.

Let’s say the ceasefire holds, Hormuz is reopened, and a deal is made–putting aside, for the sake of argument, all the caveats about how this train could be derailed.

Will the Democrats and the mainstream media even grudgingly concede that Donald Trump pulled off something quite historic? 

I’m not so sure about that. 

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A drag-racing street takeover involving more than 100 vehicles in Queens over the weekend triggered a NYPD investigation, as authorities continue searching for suspects.

The incident was reported on Saturday shortly before 2 a.m. near Eliot Avenue and 69th Street, according to the NYPD.

When officers arrived at the scene, they activated their lights and sirens to disperse the crowd. Dozens of vehicles then fled the area.

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Police said multiple vehicles were observed driving in circles.

A few people also allegedly jumped on the hood of an NYPD vehicle, causing damage and cracking the windshield before fleeing the scene in a black car.

No injuries were reported in connection with the drag racing incident.

NYC TEEN SHOT DEAD ON QUEENS BASKETBALL COURT AS BYSTANDERS FILMED; POLICE SEARCHING FOR GUNMAN

Police said no arrests have been made, but they are asking for the public's assistance in identifying eight people and four vehicles captured in photographs.

Officers canvassed surrounding streets following the incident to deter further reckless driving.

As they were patrolling, one driver was issued a summons for blocking a crosswalk.

The incident remains under investigation.

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Trick Williams has been one of WWE’s biggest rising stars since he was elevated to the main roster earlier this year.

Williams’ presentation – from his mink coat to his "lemon-pepper steppers" to his entrance music – has been able to capture pro wrestling fans’ attention for all the right reasons. He was able to earn his way into the United States Championship picture and will be going up against Sami Zayn for the title at WrestleMania 42 on Sunday.

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It will be Williams’ debut at WrestleMania, but he’s feeling at ease going into the match.

"I’m feeling good man, I’m on cloud nine," he told Fox News Digital. "My family is coming to see me at my first WrestleMania. I’m facing Sami Zayn – the ‘gingerbread man.’

"It’s personal. No disrespect to Sami Zayn, a lotta disrespect, but no disrespect because he’s great in his own right. He’s definitely a future Hall of Famer, multiple championship runs and everything like that. But on Sunday night, Night 2, all that goes out the window. It’s Trick Willy time."

WWE STAR DANHAUSEN SAYS METS 'CURSE' ISN'T EXACTLY LIFTED AS TEAM DROPS NINTH STRAIGHT GAME

Williams said that his quick trajectory on the SmackDown roster and his appetite to be the best is why he has the edge going into the match.

"I’m hungry," he said. "I haven’t been here before. Sami’s done this for a very, very long time. He still has things he wants to accomplish. But look, I’m hungrier than ever. I’ve fought my way to get into this position.

"They’re saying, ‘Oh this is a five-year thing for Trick, he ain’t that experienced.’ No, this is a 31-year thing. I’ve been training my whole life for this moment right here, for everybody to see on Sunday night. He doesn’t want it the way I want it. Everybody’s gonna see that."

Zayn is one of the best pro wrestlers in the industry. While the crowd has turned on him in recent weeks, Zayn may be the favorite going into the match because he’s a veteran in the game.

WrestleMania Night 2 is set for Las Vegas at Allegiant Stadium at 6 p.m. ET.

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If you read "Everything Will Be Okay" and felt inspired and reassured, read "Purple State."

Over the years, I’ve been driven to write my mentoring books because I wanted all of my best advice to be in one place. As I set out to draft my new novel, "Purple State," I wanted to help my characters — three women: Dot, Mary and Harper — live out those lessons in the story. They confront and address their quarter-life crises in a way that has the potential to set them up for career success and personal fulfillment.

In my nonfiction books, I talked about living with principles that make decision-making easier. And now in "Purple State," I show what it costs to live by those principles — to have them tested, and to live with the consequences of your decisions.

That’s how I’ve bridged the two books.

DANA PERINO: 'EVERYTHING WILL BE OKAY' -- WHAT I WANT TO SHARE WITH TODAY'S YOUNG WOMEN

"Everything Will Be Okay" made it plain that life isn’t easy. It basically said, yes, there’s uncertainty in life, and you can manage that by being more resilient and trusting yourself — sticking to your values even when the path ahead isn’t clear. Especially then! It was a guidebook for navigating chaos with grace.

And that’s where I began with "Purple State." The story takes place over a single year. Dot, Mary and Harper are each at a quarter-life crossroads. They have great ambition, but they’re being bruised by experience. They’re trying to reconcile what they thought they would be doing at this point in their lives with the lives that they’re actually living.

When given a chance to shake things up, Dot leaves behind the certainty of New York for a relationship and a career change she can’t fully control. Mary, grounded and pragmatic, must confront the limits of playing it safe. Harper, sharp but lacking confidence, discovers that independence without vulnerability can become its own kind of isolation.

Does that sound like you — or someone you know and love? That’s because I didn’t pull their problems out of thin air. These are the challenges I see young people dealing with all the time. And because I dealt with them myself. If there’s one thing you learn from both books, it’s that you aren’t alone in feeling this way. That you can find a way to navigate the daily back-and-forth between fear and faith, control and surrender, and ambition and connection.

Another truism of both books is that character matters more than circumstance. Who are you when no one is looking? "Purple State" takes that idea and tests it as the three friends figure out how to live for a year away from Manhattan while they’re in Wisconsin.

They’re deeply involved in a political campaign, and they all end up testing the limits of what is too confining, too comfortable and too far outside their plans. Along the way, they learn that love requires risk — just like their careers. And perhaps the safe choice isn’t the right one.

DANA PERINO’S MUST-READ BOOKS OF THE YEAR

The answer unfolds not in sweeping declarations, but in small, consequential decisions — the kind that shape a life more than any single dramatic moment ever could.

And at the center of it all is a simple but profound conclusion: love wins — if you let it.

"Everything Will Be Okay" teaches the power of staying grounded, showing up for your friends and protecting your integrity. Dot, Mary and Harper learn the same lessons.

In a cultural moment that often rewards cynicism and division, "Purple State" offers something both refreshing and necessary: the idea that we are not as far apart as we think, and that the most important decisions we make are not political, but personal. Who do we trust? Who do we stand by? Who do we choose to love?

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The setting — Wisconsin, a true "purple state" — is as symbolic as it is geographic. It reflects the emotional and ideological middle ground where most people live, even if the loudest voices suggest otherwise. It’s in that space that compromise, understanding and, ultimately, connection become possible.

For readers who appreciated the optimism of "Everything Will Be Okay," "Purple State" offers a deeper, richer experience. It doesn’t just tell you what matters — it lets you feel it.

Make good decisions in your life. And then you’ll see — everything truly will be okay.

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